I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.
Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?
I've heard (not only rumours, but in some of the Sunday papers, whatever that is worth) that Anglo Irish is the most exposed of the Irish banks to the credit crunch. I also know a few people who have moved their savings out of the bank in recent times.
Mmmm. Interesting!
There is not usually smoke without fire!!
Mmmm. Interesting!
There is not usually smoke without fire!!
Except in financial markets where hysteria and irrationality rule supreme.
so far all the rumours have been just that,rumours without base.
Unfortunately, in banking terms, smoke is as good as fire and a lack of confidence can break a bank.
Ignoring these rumours some of the deals they financed in Cork* were insane. That was all I needed to convince me they had been too loose with lending.
*I only mention Cork because it is the market I'm familiar with.
They are safe but they are not AS SAFE as other Irish Bank who would be able to lend based on larger balance sheets. Story is that Anglo need more deposits to fund their lending book.... They dont have the balance sheet back up that other Banks do so they are more under pressure to give high rates to get cash in....
Oddly enough Anglo appear to have been the only bank that has not lent to Michael Lynn and Thomas Byrne based on the Solicitors undertaking, and appears to be the only one of all the banks to have good security on their loans to either of these characters.
Agreed, that was bizarre. I expect to see more of these type of stories regarding Anglo - http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/mchl-is-to-stay-afloat-despite-4235m-debt-1226455.html
Me thinks a little caution is in order here
the first post was
I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.
Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?
Not a basis to run a thread.
IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here
Well one thing Anlgo has in common with Northern Rock is the large number of shares on loan which is seen as an indication of short interest.
It is quite high compared with AIB and BOI.
Ignoring these rumours some of the deals they financed in Cork* were insane. That was all I needed to convince me they had been too loose with lending.
Can you clarify on this
Me thinks a little caution is in order hereCompletely agreed. Everyone please be very careful of what you say. I think it's okay to discuss the financial situation of a bank, particularly in the current climate and when the Sunday papers have mentioned a thing or two. However, for obvious reasons anyone who makes a claim that is not reasonable discussion about the financial situation of the bank, or that could place Boards.ie in any difficult situations legally, will see themselves banned from this forum very quickly. So let's all keep it above board and use the Report a Post function if any of you think a comment is out of line.
IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here
Agreed.
Well one thing Anlgo has in common with Northern Rock is the large number of shares on loan which is seen as an indication of short interest.
It is quite high compared with AIB and BOI.
Where can you get those figures? I was looking around for them one day but couldn't find them.
Can you clarify on this
Yeah sure. This post on Archiseek goes into a bit of detail on the whole thing - http://www.archiseek.com/content/showthread.php?p=43573#post43573
Basically a developer called Joe O'Donovan bought up a lot of property to develop into a shopping centre. Now Cork already has a lot of empty units and Owen O'Callaghan is building a big new shopping centre already. Now I can't see the demand for even more units but lets assume these guys know more than I do well even then the prices that O'Donovan paid were massive, with lots of the property owners holding out for ages and ramping up the prices. For example Central Shoe Store is listed there as going for 15m when a few weeks ago The Bodega a similar sized property went for 8m.
So basically I think he overpaid for the properties.
Rumour has it O'Donovan went to O'Callaghan and O'Callaghan told him he had overpaid for the properties. O'Callagahan is also on the record saying that Dunne overpaid for the Jury's site, if I remember O'Callaghan's bid was half what Dunne paid! So I'd trust his judgment a certain degree.
Again it's nothing huge or anything but if that's indicative of lots of their deals, and they are heavy on commercial property in Ireland and the UK, then it's enough for me to worry.
Where can you get those figures? I was looking around for them one day but couldn't find them.
I know what you mean it's surprisingly difficult to find it for UK and Irish stocks.
This is where i get the info from:
http://www.crestco.co.uk/
The monthly data is free but you have to pay for the daily data.
For the US equivalent I use:
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=ShortInterest
I would agree with what a previous poster said regarding the link between ISTC and Anglo.
Anglo post results on Nov 28th so we will get some (maybe!!) clarification then!
Anglo post results on Nov 28th so we will get some (maybe!!) clarification then!
And it's good news (http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1128/anglo.html).
Anglo shares surge on reassuring results
Wednesday, 28 November 2007 12:39
Shares in Anglo Irish Bank have jumped by more than 10% in Dublin after it reported pre-tax profits of just under €1.25 billion for the year to the end of September, up 46% on the same period last year and the first time the figure has topped €1 billion.
The results and accompanying comments from the bank appeared to reassure investors concerned about the effects of the recent crisis in credit markets on banking profits.
Net lending to customers was up 37% to €67.1 billion, while the amount of lending in the pipeline was €9.8 billion.
Anglo Irish chief executive David Drumm told RTE radio that the 37% lending growth this year would moderate next year, and the longer-term sustainable growth rate for the bank was 15-20%.
On the current crisis in the financial markets, Mr Drumm said the practice of spreading risk by parcelling out pieces of debt was a risk, and Anglo operated in a different way and looked at every loan individually.
He said the bank had taken a €67m impairment provision, which he described as a prudent measure to cover its exposure to structured investment vehicles (SIVs), which had been hit by the problems in credit markets.
Underlying earnings per share were 41% higher at 131.7 cent, and a final dividend of just over 13 cent will be paid, giving a 20% higher total of 19.49 cent for the year.
Mr Drumm said the bank had 'a resilient funding platform, excellent liquidity and capital strength', adding that underlying earnings growth was expected to be over 15% in 2008.
Referring to the turmoil in financial markets, Mr Drumm said the bank had been prudent, and had a low level of bad loans - just 0.5% of total lending. 'The bank does not engage in speculative development lending,' he added.
In a statement accompanying the results, Anglo chairman Sean Fitzpatrick said that while it was hard to predict when the current problems in financial markets would settle, the forthcoming releases of full-year results from banks would be 'an important step in this direction'.
He added that while economic growth in its markets would ease, this would be partly offset by a more benign outlook for interest rates.
Anglo Irish Bank said it added 320 staff during the financial year, bringing staff numbers to 1,873.
Anglo Irish shares were up more than 12% at €11.22 in Dublin this lunchtime.
Me thinks a little caution is in order here
the first post was
Not a basis to run a thread.
IMO the links, real and perceived, between ISTC and Anglo is part of what is at play here
In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?:D
Lots of people made a lot of money shorting it on the way down!
It'll be very interesting to see what AIB say next week.
In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?
I'm not sure what that reference to me means and it is very tempting to ignore it but i would hate to think that your comment suggests i was pro or anti Anglo. So i am reluctantly forced to give a reply,
What I said about the large percentage of Anglo shares on loan was not an opinion, it is fact. Look at the CREST data. Those short sellers would have made alot of money on the way down and part of yesterdays big percentage gain would have been those short sellers closing their positions to take profit or new short sellers closing positions to limit losses(because stock sold short always represents future demand).
aib will probably say something along the lines of "mortgage sales are slowing like we preicted, faster thatn we predicted, oh please fianna fail cut stamp duty, poor us" similar to the auctioneers association, friends first etc. whats worse is people actually think this is newsworthy. STOP THE PRESSES! A business association wants tax cuts! I was suprised by anglos results, glad i didnt try short it, but then i am a perma-bear at the moment.
:)
... an anglo employee looks on with a smug smile plastered across his face.
;)
In light of Anglo's results, your comments look very foolish, perhaps you and PDelux could share some hat?:D
Selectively editing my post is not very helpful, but that was not your intention. Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.
This, the opening post in the thread, is what you chose to omit
I have heard a few rumours that Anglo Irish Bank are in a bit of financial trouble and that institutions are starting to / already have removed their funds from Anglo accounts.
Has anybody else heard what is going on?? Are we looking at another Northern Rock?
I was concerned about the potential liability to boards.ie if this thread got out of hand.
:)
... an anglo employee looks on with a smug smile plastered across his face.
;)
In some ways all that's happened is that Drumm has put his job absolutely on the line. If the 2008 results are anything less than the guidance he's going to have zero credibility.
Selectively editing my post is not very helpful, but that was not your intention. Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.Needless to say if you're unhappy with somebody's posts you can report them. If you think it's a catalogue of attacks, mention this in the report and it will be investigated.
Sonnenblumen: play nice.
Your record of continually sniping at my input on boards.ie is already noted.
I was concerned about the potential liability to boards.ie if this thread got out of hand.
Surely to talk around any real or perceived links is complete fudge. Why not tackle the post firsthand, if there's a more serious liability aspect well surely there are plenty of minders to do the minding.
The OP and a number of other posters were bandwagoning rumours about Anglo, and as was patently demonstrated by the company's excellent results, complete crap which I am genuinely surprised was tolerated in the Investment forum.
I've no awareness of the sniping and what's noted? If there is, well perhaps there were reasons, but disagreement is hardly sniping, and you should know better than me, in the cut and thrust of exchanges, why would anyone be surprised to encounter an abundance of disagreement on boards.
Oddly enough Anglo appear to have been the only bank that has not lent to Michael Lynn and Thomas Byrne based on the Solicitors undertaking, and appears to be the only one of all the banks to have good security on their loans to either of these characters.
I believe Ulster Bank havent. First Active recently changed into Ulster Bank and they had lent the money.... It was in the papers about 3 weeks ago as First Active and this week as Ulster Bank.
if there's a more serious liability aspect well surely there are plenty of minders to do the minding.Plenty of minders, but it never hurts to have people to flag things to us. You should know this. His post was noted for its helpfulness.
complete crap which I am genuinely surprised was tolerated in the Investment forum.You know better than to question moderating on-thread. You're well aware any of the mods will reply to a PM on the matter.
Cop on tbh.
:)
... an anglo employee looks on with a smug smile plastered across his face.
;)
The are still unable to lend the big bucks cos their balance sheet cant fund it.... Maybe next years profits will tell the real tale.
The OP and a number of other posters were bandwagoning rumours about Anglo, and as was patently demonstrated by the company's excellent results, complete crap which I am genuinely surprised was tolerated in the Investment forum.
That's one way of reading it. I'm more conservative. There wasn't a whole pile different between the tone of Anglo's comments on their 2007 performance than BOI's comments on their 2007 performance. However Anglo said that 2008 will be frickin' amazing and BOI refused to give guidance and the markets reacted very differently. So lets see what happens in 2008. I don't think the share price will be any higher in Jan 09 than it is now.
I'm sitting on the sidelines. I've no reason to hurry in, there's other sectors I'm in that I feel are less vulnerable.
That's one way of reading it. I'm more conservative. There wasn't a whole pile different between the tone of Anglo's comments on their 2007 performance than BOI's comments on their 2007 performance. However Anglo said that 2008 will be frickin' amazing and BOI refused to give guidance and the markets reacted very differently. So lets see what happens in 2008. I don't think the share price will be any higher in Jan 09 than it is now.
I'm sitting on the sidelines. I've no reason to hurry in, there's other sectors I'm in that I feel are less vulnerable.
A bit of a dilemma here, is it the Doomsday Principle, ie "we're all goin' DIEEEEEEEEE" but when? Or is it Samuel Beckett, " It didn't happen this year, it's because it's going to happen next year"
Lumpy mattresses back in fashion next year?
What are you talking about Doomsday, the share prices had 50% knocked off of them already and all I'm saying is I don't see a quick recovery. You were telling people to buy all the way down, if you followed your strategy you're still massively in the red. (http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53586620&postcount=40)
I'm not trying to pick on you, we all make bad calls but you've got an attitude about it. If I believe that the recoverly for financials won't happen in '08 I'm more than entitled to it.
You though that C&C was a dead cert to go back to €12. (http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53593103&postcount=7)
....
I'm not trying to pick on you, we all make bad calls but you've got an attitude about it. If I believe that the recovery for financials won't happen in '08 I'm more than entitled to it...
Not just entitled to, but most probably will be proven correct. The mess in sub-prime is only an entree for the mess that will occur in Alt-A on '08.
The other problem is that there is a fear that some of the big US banks have used Enron type SPV's and the hedging markets to hide some of the non-performing loans.
What are you talking about Doomsday, the share prices had 50% knocked off of them already and all I'm saying is I don't see a quick recovery. You were telling people to buy all the way down, if you followed your strategy you're still massively in the red. (http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53586620&postcount=40)
I'm not trying to pick on you, we all make bad calls but you've got an attitude about it. If I believe that the recoverly for financials won't happen in '08 I'm more than entitled to it.
You though that C&C was a dead cert to go back to €12. (http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=53593103&postcount=7)
Is this a fountain of wisdom - or is it pissing in the wind? SP is down yeah (<50% of '07 peak) but if you're smart you would have bought Anglo ages ago, in which case you'd be riding high. I did buy Anglo and continue to do every year, most recently last week. I don't wait for some bright spark to start buying. I do my homework and buy to hold.
I don't remember saying C&C are a dead cert? Yes I was tempted and I think they are probably a good buy, but the risk currently outweighs the potential upside.
Have I attitude No. I just don't like pissy pants panic. Enjoy your waiting, I'm sure you'll make some money sometime.
BTW what calls have you made ?? I don't remember any good or bad?
Why not expand on why you see no fin recovery in '08, and more interestingly when then??
What's pissy pants panic, I've told you I'm not interested in financials in 2008. I don't see a recovery due to the continuing lack of liquidy it in the credit markets. Why would I get involved in going long on a financial when I could continue with stocks in other sectors.
You called C&C a 'practical cert'. You said buy Anglo all the way down. All I've said is I'm not buying this year since I see no growth this year. I've better things to do with my capital in the interim.
There's not much point in me retrospectively telling you I've made calls because you won't believe me.
All I'm doing is pointing out that you can't be calling things pissy pants panic, when C&C is 200% off the value you called a 'practical cert' and Anglo has been falling on a weekly basis when you've been telling people to buy in all the way down.
I agree, anyone who bought Anglo ages ago, more power to them, but that doesn't mean you can call people who won't buy it, stockbrokers who are downgrading it, traders who are shorting it pissy pants.
Why are you repeating? So what fins are down and C&C, can you or I tell the future?? NO. Do we read newspapers ? YES. Did anyone foresee the credit squeeze and more specifically the extent to which it has impacted on Irish Fins ? NO. C&C has hit an unexpected bad period? Maurice Pratt has an exemplary track record, most probably better than you or I could dream about. But the stock is down.
Anyways, I thought this was an 'open' forum where posters might put up views but not the DaveIrl 'I told You So' Forum!
Indecision is weakness, making the ocacasional wrong decision does not invalidate the process. We've still to hear anything about your decisions, no doubt they've been singularly linear successes??
What's pissy pants - well for starters people getting unecessarily scared following the imaginary link between aformentioned credit squeeze (precipitated by Sub Prime in USA) and European Banks including Anglo?
can you or I tell the future?? NO. Exaclty, so why are you getting antsy about me saying Anglo is not the place to have your money in 07? We'll put that one to bed, I'm saying I see Anglo's share price being <= the 01/12/07 price on 01/12/08. Hence I'm not investing. It's a judgement call. You disagree. Fine.
We've still to hear anything about your decisions, no doubt they've been singularly linear successes??Like I said what's the point in listing them out, you're not going to believe me. They weren't in financials in '07 though.
What's pissy pants - well for starters people getting unecessarily scared following the imaginary link between aformentioned credit squeeze (precipitated by Sub Prime in USA) and European Banks including Anglo?What imaginary link. Have you seen the rates EURIBOR and LIBOR are running at. How you call the credit crunch having an imaginary impact on European banks is beyond me? I've a friend who's business had a 30,000 overdraft facility withdrawn due to the squeeze last week, I know people working in HBOS commerical lending who are completely shocked at how much liquidity has dried up. Large banks in other countries are asking big clients not to use long standing lines of credit because the bank is totally illiquid (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/12/04/9362/banks-to-uk-corporates-stop-borrowing-now/).
How on earth can you say the credit crunch isn't impacting European banks?
The are still unable to lend the big bucks cos their balance sheet cant fund it.... Maybe next years profits will tell the real tale.
hmm, quantify big bucks? :)
obviously i won't be disclosing any sensitive information, but if you read through Anglo's results, funding is not a problem.
i think we can all agree the year ahead will be slower than previous years, but in my humble opinion, the glo are in a strong position to outperform consensus (as usual).
plus, :rolleyes: my share options will be tastily low this year.
as for what a previous poster said about drummer putting his job on the line.... i suppose thats true, but sure the same can be said for all ceo's when they speak of how their company will perform in the coming year.
anyhow, all this is guesswork. i'll be the first to say i don't understand the markets....so here's hoping the iseq stays above the 6500 figure!!!!
as for what a previous poster said about drummer putting his job on the line.... i suppose thats true, but sure the same can be said for all ceo's when they speak of how their company will perform in the coming year.
True, but my point would be BOI and AIB were much more conservative about '08 expectations than Anglo were.
Wow ...............
I started this thread a few months back and decided to check back on it this morning. I am AMAZED at just what I started!!
I am a novice.
I have no / very little investment experience.
I was just looking for a bit of help / advise from the helpful members of this board.
I thank those of you who offered an opinion.
T
Anglo going down to €8.50 a share perhaps? ;)
Lots of Irish buyers suckers out there.
Lots of Irish buyers suckers out there.
Buyers buy, suckers deliberate/moan. Thats how money is made!
