I'm very tempted at the moment to pick up 10K of ISEQ-20 ETF shares. The ISEQ's nearly down to what it was at the beginning of last year! Anyone have any thoughts on the matter? Sure it could drop some more but it's still pretty much a bargain whichever way you look at it (at least, I *hope* it's a bargain...).
Anyone have any thoughts on whether now's a good time to buy?
I wouldn't go near the ISEQ! Just a personal hunch, but I got 50% of my shares out when the ISEQ was at 9,900 so I'm kind of lucky if not knowledgable.
I'm holding back till the froth comes completely off our economy starting with the housing bubble. I suggest an ISEQ of 6500 is a suitable re-entry point i.e. 35% off peak (but I have no scientific back up to this) so you should do as you feel best!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7055161.stm
The ISEQ appears to be in freefall these days. You may be right but I suspect it has room to fall yet.
That extraordinary thing called sentiment is currently the driving force. It is hard to believe that crh-aib-boi deserve the drubbing they are getting but there seems no end in sight just yet.
This time lasy year Davys were directing about 65% of all investor funds into the ISEQ. In january they took a policy change to direct only 35%. In purchasing terms this was a massive move. As soon as the directive within the company was made the smart money scrambled out of the ISEQ, including me. They haven't changed policy even though the publicaly talk up the Irish market and flog plenty of Grey Market shares they still have spead the spend.
The ISEQ has some some more to fall and its banks are quite exsposed. If you are determined to buy Irish Stock take a punt on firms with strong overseas trade positions such a Ryanair. Avoid building ralated shares for now. Tech shares offer potential.
Whatever you do, don't make a play on a volatile stock like C&C or Elan, you could so easily see half your investment wiped out. I'd also avoid construction/land-related stocks like Kingspan or McInerney Holdings, in my opinion, they still have some way to fall yet.
I personally think that some of the banking stocks hold promise though. For example, AIB has seen nearly 40% of its value shedded in the last few months. Considering that the bank has a diverse loanbook and large customer base, I feel it has been oversold.
I personally think that some of the banking stocks hold promise though. For example, AIB has seen nearly 40% of its value shedded in the last few months. Considering that the bank has a diverse loanbook and large customer base, I feel it has been oversold.
I would have agreed with you until this week, now I'm not so sure, I'm surprised by the exposure that's been shown up this week. I had them down as having a fairly conservative lending policy especially compared to Anglo, who it turns out had their bases covered compared to AIB with these solicitors!
I would have agreed with you until this week, now I'm not so sure, I'm surprised by the exposure that's been shown up this week. I had them down as having a fairly conservative lending policy especially compared to Anglo, who it turns out had their bases covered compared to AIB with these solicitors!
You should familiarise yourself with AIB operations, eg Irish mortgages account for < 15% of Group Profit. In the case of this latest (solicitors) panic, AIB has an exposure of c 10-15mio but given, the Group has annual profits of > 1 Billion, don't you think you're being overcautious and perhaps overreacting to this latest market scare?
AIB is a definite buy to hold.
I just said 'I'm not so sure'! Didn't say I still didn't have it as a buy. :) All I'm saying is that I was very surprised considering I had them as rock solid with regard to loose lending practices. Especially compared to Anglo who it turns out played this one right!
What about CRH, it's as low as it's been in a long time?
What about CRH, it's as low as it's been in a long time?
Agree, caught my attention the other day, down to almost 50% of 12 month high. Low divi though!
Anyone looking at Cemex ? SP looking low but generous divi, and yes we're all too familiar with the projections and actuals of downturn in building, a little overcooked IMO.
What does divi mean?
Also on what market is cemex?
a few reasons why the iseq is not looking at all healthy for the short term , the iseq is heavily influenced by the american stock market and subsequently , the american economy in general , the outlook for both is not good in the short term
2ndly , the irish stock market is very heavily populated by banks , the banking sector has had a phonomenol run this past 5 yrs , one of the main reason was obviously down to the amount of money it lent to house buyers , well we all know that the housing market is passed the top of the hill and firmly on its way down , expect to see a lot more repossessins which are in turn not good for banks
better to buy specific shares i think , someone mentioned techs , my money right now would be on one area and one area only , food , if you look at the weekly reports of the stock exchange list , only a few companys are near there yearly high , all the rest are close to there yearly low
the companys that are at ther yearly high are the creamerys , glanbia , donegal and kerry
commodities are booming right now across the globe and soft commodities like milk , wheat , grain etc are on fire, this is very likely to continue for at least a few yrs , demand is outstripping demand for food globally for the 1st time in decades
while there are no specific wheat companys in ireland that are on the stock exchange , there are milk companys which ive listed
bank of ireland looks like it is headed for 10.00 shortly and crh is still going down. steer clear of the iseq. though boi at 10 would be very tempting.
BOI is tempting now,given the dividend,but it may get cheaper short term.
Remember that the issue with banks isnt their loan books as much as their ability to finance themselves.
More pain for the large US brokers though.The brokers with the largest CDO exposures are still marking to market at generous prices.Its only the brokers that have relativley little exposure have announced write downs.
boi 10.30 at close-almost beggars belief but it is still falling
As I said on the 21st Oct above wait till the ISEQ gets below 6500 and then start thinking about investing.
I say think about it - don't invest too quick , you may decide it's going lower.
Three letters CFDs
Two words, margin call.
So looks like we'll hit 6,500 sometime very soon. Are you guys going to buy back in or have you lost your nerve? I know I have.
three words: housing dominated economy. there is a global housing/credit crash about to happen, id be careful buying anything in the iseq until the crash happens. admittedly we dont see the reduced sentiment we should before a recession but just beacuse people dont know whats about to happen doesnt mean it wont. dollar plumetting, commodities soaring, stagflation on the way!
read a great article someone posted, search for is subprime canary in the mine? and you should find it.
three words: housing dominated economy. there is a global housing/credit crash about to happen, id be careful buying anything in the iseq until the crash happens.
I'm well aware of this I'd consider myself fairly bearish, doesn't mean I don't think that AIB at a P/E of 5.8 isn't good value.
ISEQ at 6,500 temptation beyond resistance. Buying now should give great returns later in 2008. Meanwhile Fin Stocks with divis > 6% is simply unpassable?
More AIB + BoI, and a little Anglo. Still nervous on ILP, good performance on Life/pension sides but the exposure to housing slump greater than others.
I thought the banks were oversold a month ago and bought a couple hundred shares in AIB/BoI. P/Es were good, div yields were good.
Thought I was being clever but look at them now. Haven't lost a fortune but think the market valuations are being driven by panic not logic.
The market sentiment is so negative it might be a while before there's a recovery.
Personally, I have a great interest in the financial markets the last few years. I advised my friend to invest 750,000 into funds with the Bank of Ireland and I am living like a worried soul since that day. The money was invested in January and the market started tumbling in August. I know these investments are 5 year investments but do you think the investment will make any money at all in this period?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated?
I'm not qualified or anything so take what I say with a pinch of salt but I'd be surprised. Lets assume today is the bottom*, then 10% return per year would bring you back up to €16. Not too far off the value at the start of the year but not far off.
5 years would traditionally be a short enough time to expect returns on an equity position. What influenced you to go long on BOI out of interest?
*big enough assumption
The thing is if there is a recession in the US, what effect would this have on irish shares? It's hard to know but this could take the iseq down even further. US equities are coming off record highs. Also we haven't had a real crash here in the housing market yet (soft-hard landing etc.)... Alot of investors could be thinking along those lines.
Over 5 years it's impossible to predict but you'd be very unlucky not to recover some ground. Over 6 / 7 it would be unusual not to make some kind of gain (given that most funds have dividends reinvested that would count for 1 - 2% gain at least each year)...
5 years would traditionally be a short enough time to expect returns on an equity position.
You just reminded me of something one of the stockbrokers said on the radio last week, i think it was on Drivetime. She said if people bought Irish bank shares now they would see a healthy return in the medium term. She was asked what the "medium term" would be and she said 12 months!!!
You just reminded me of something one of the stockbrokers said on the radio last week, i think it was on Drivetime. She said if people bought Irish bank shares now they would see a healthy return in the medium term. She was asked what the "medium term" would be and she said 12 months!!!
Yeah heard that myself, it was a girl from Davy. My favourite part about that whole thing was that she was on the radio Wednesday night pumping the stock and the very next morning before 8.30AM Bloomberg were reporting that Davy has downgraded the stock and reduced their price target on it.
iseq now at 6384.99!!!
According to one of the Sunday papers last Friday PaddyPower were offering Evens that it would finish below 7,000 this Friday. I went to back it on Monday morning and the bet was gone.
I think negative sentiment has a good long way to run yet. I believe the housing market might truly crash next year (down 20%+ on the calendar year 2008) and this will keep both national and international institutional investors negative on the banking and housing stocks as earning fall (rather than register small earning growth as many hope).
I'm trying to keep Buffet's quote at the front of my mind: Try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. People are certainly very fearful about involvement with Irish banking stocks right now!
Most of the banking stocks are below June 2004 prices, if that doesn't appeal as a bargain, well its savings you need not investments.
Most of the banking stocks are below June 2004 prices, if that doesn't appeal as a bargain, well its savings you need not investments.
Why are they so low then? I don't know I've second guessed myself out of getting back into them. Someone must know something I don't know if AIB are trading at 5x P/E
Am I wrong to surmise that should the economic situation in Ireland, Western Europe and the US contines / accelerates on its downwards path and the banks earnings go into reverse, that the P/E ratio will climb even if the stock price remains static? 'Cause that is what I (and I'm not alone) think is going to happen. The high dividends of recent years will truly become a thing of the past if some of the big developers that the banks have loaned millions / billions in total to default. Surely if this is the case the current P/E is something to be ignored? Enlighten me those of know more of such things :)
Am I wrong to surmise that should the economic situation in Ireland, Western Europe and the US contines / accelerates on its downwards path and the banks earnings go into reverse, that the P/E ratio will climb even if the stock price remains static? 'Cause that is what I (and I'm not alone) think is going to happen. The high dividends of recent years will truly become a thing of the past if some of the big developers that the banks have loaned millions / billions in total to default. Surely if this is the case the current P/E is something to be ignored? Enlighten me those of know more of such things :)
Yes you're bang on the money, there is an indicator you can look at called forward P/E but at the moment that's still running at 11x or so. I suspect when AIB make their earnings update in December they'll release estimates that will bring this down.
The interesting thing to look at is that Anglo are still trading with a higher P/E than AIB or BOI which would be ok if you expected them to have high growth going forward but I'd expect that to be very unlikely at this stage.
I'm considering an execution only purchase of BOI shares with sharewatch for their small trade 50 offer.
As I don't open an account with them, what level of protection do i have? I simply have to deposit funds and then they buy the shares. I understand for an extra 10 they'll post me a share certificate.
Are they registered with IFSRA in which case should anything happen i'll be covered, and will the share certificate prove my ownership of the shares presumably?
Also, if i don't request a share certificate, what protection or certainty do i have that i receive my dividends, or can be certain and prove i own the shares?
Thanks.
I'd recommend Campbell and o Conner
Only something like €25 fee + gov tax for trades under €8,888
Tribune article worth reading...
http://www.tribune.ie/article.tvt?_scope=Tribune/Business/Markets&id=80137&SUBCAT=Tribune/Business/Markets
"The US remains the world's biggest economic power, and Wall Street's investment banks are the most innovative on the planet. We may see a weak dollar again. We may see burnt-out share prices for investment banks again. But both at the same time? That seems unlikely."
Tribune article worth reading...
http://www.tribune.ie/article.tvt?_scope=Tribune/Business/Markets&id=80137&SUBCAT=Tribune/Business/Markets
"The US remains the world's biggest economic power, and Wall Street's investment banks are the most innovative on the planet. We may see a weak dollar again. We may see burnt-out share prices for investment banks again. But both at the same time? That seems unlikely."
Don't think the dollar will recover much against the euro in the near term, if at all, so it might be worth waiting to see what other news comes out of Wall Street if you are interested in US banks. I'm trying not to be overly negative (although I think I am!) but think the chances of more bad news greatly out-weigh the chances of good news...
6295.13
This is really starting to screw up my Portfolio. I am seriously underwater on the Irish shares and it is swallowing up all my profits in other areas. Just as well China is propping me up. On the bright side European stocks are holding.
I'd recommend Campbell and o Conner
Only something like 25 fee + gov tax for trades under 8,888
how many people here use this company and what are your experiences with them.
I have a few questions about them
using the execution only method, is there an annual fee for having an account with them.
Commission is stated as minimum 25.40 but it says 1.5% gross consideration what does this mean.
Are dividends paid directly to me, i read something about dividends being paid to the nominee account, i assume this is my account.
What happens if this company goes bust will the affect me at all?
Thanks to all this forum is really useful
the company going bust, unless it happens mid-trade if you know what i mean shouldn't matter. as they are only an intermediary through which you buy the shares. you would be sent the share certificate as your proof of ownership. dividends would of course be directly paid to your account.im afraid i cant answer the other questions.
The 25.40 is just a minimum charge - the commission is 1.5% (but let's say you are only buying 1,000 in shares, the commission is not 15, it is 25.40)
I am not with Campbell O'Connor myself, but that is my reading of their charges.
how many people here use this company and what are your experiences with them.
I have a few questions about them
using the execution only method, is there an annual fee for having an account with them.
Commission is stated as minimum 25.40 but it says 1.5% gross consideration what does this mean.
Are dividends paid directly to me, i read something about dividends being paid to the nominee account, i assume this is my account.
What happens if this company goes bust will the affect me at all?
Thanks to all this forum is really useful
COC are a fine brokerage, very professional and fees are transparent. Like all reputable Stock Brokers, they are regulated and terms and conditions are readily available for any prospective customer. Check also website.
You do not have to open an account therefore no annual service charges are applicable. In otherwords you can execute (buy/sell) on a one -off basis. But this is the same for most. Divis are paid directly to stockholder.
Why are they so low then? I don't know I've second guessed myself out of getting back into them. Someone must know something I don't know if AIB are trading at 5x P/E
Yeah, its called Pissy Pants Panic, so how much do you need?
Yeah, its called Pissy Pants Panic, so how much do you need?
We'll see.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1127/centralbank.html
for a current and sanguine view on the financial markets.
IMO any temporary upside now is due to possible bids for some of the Irish banks, a mood tempered somewhat by the half trillion of Alt-A loans that reprice in the first half of 2008 in the US.
The average expected uplift in rates is 1.5%
Alt-A is between sub-prime and prime.
